In 2026, global economic growth will continue to be uneven. The economies of Europe and the United States will slow down and face the risk of recession, while the Chinese economy will maintain its growth trajectory. The global economic growth pace is expected to first decline and then rise. The acceleration of China's economic growth will drive the stabilization and recovery of industrial metal prices. At the same time, implementing the national policy of green energy development, upgrading manufacturing, strengthening national defense and resource security cannot be achieved without the fundamental support of new materials, strategic metals and new energy metals, which will enhance the market confidence in copper.
From the supply side, although there will still be a considerable amount of new copper mine production capacity in 2025, currently, risk events in Latin America are frequent and the interference factors in mine production have significantly increased. If such events occur again and affect the normal operation of existing mines and the commissioning and stable production of new mines, the tight balance of copper mines may once again turn into a shortage. Therefore, the stability of the supply side remains the main factor hindering the copper mine supply in 2026.
From the demand side, the rapid advancement of the new energy industry will provide effective support for copper consumption in the short term. However, traditional household appliances, communication electronics and other industries are unlikely to form effective support in the short term due to the weak global economy and the transfer of manufacturing to Southeast Asia. At the same time, policy transmission requires time. It is expected that domestic copper demand will not increase too much in the short term, and the long-term impact of policies on the real estate market will need to be observed.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has made the EU deeply aware of the pain of not being able to self-sufficient in energy and mineral resources, prompting it to take measures to reduce its dependence on Russia's energy and mineral resources. The EU has set a goal of breaking away from dependence on Russia, including reducing dependence on Russian natural gas and accelerating the construction of new energy. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is affecting the global energy and mineral resource landscape and making supply chain security a primary task for the economic development of all countries. Especially for security considerations, achieving the localization of the supply chain and industrial chain of the new energy industry will intensify the competition for new energy-related minerals.