On October 9, 2026, the closing price of copper futures in the London market was close to its historical high. Several overseas institutions warned that global copper supply continues to shrink, and there is potential for the copper price to rise.
UBS analyst Théa Ziegler listed copper as a highly certain commodity in her research report. She believes that the growth in demand brought about by the electrification transformation and data center construction will continue to exceed the growth rate of supply, and the long-term structural support for copper prices remains valid; however, tariffs and trade policies will bring short-term uncertainties, and the supply growth is likely to be less than the demand in the next few years. The closing price of copper in the London market last Friday was approximately $14,622 per ton. Ziegler judged that the copper supply gap may continue until the early 2030s. The double factors of copper mine strikes in Chile and the decline in global inventories have further depleted the market's buffer space.
A JPMorgan executive mentioned that a strike has occurred at Centinela Copper Mine, owned by Antofagasta. The union warned that if the strike continues, the mine may reduce production as early as two weeks, further intensifying supply pressure.
Daniel Ghali, the head of metals research at Deutsche Bank, previously stated that global copper inventories are at historically low levels. The increase in stockpiles in China and the United States has squeezed supplies from other regions, and he raised the target price for LME copper to $22,050 per ton in the second quarter of 2027.
UBS continues to be bullish on mining stocks that are strongly correlated with copper prices, focusing on Freeport-McMoRan, First Quantum, Hudbay, and Teck Resources. They believe that these four companies will benefit from the long-term upward trend in copper prices driven by supply and demand dynamics.