On September 10, 2026, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange was $14,812 per ton, up $84 from yesterday's close of $14,728. It is very close to the historical peak. Meanwhile, the latest price of the copper contract 2610 in Shanghai was 111,660 yuan per ton, up 540 yuan from yesterday's settlement price of 111,120 yuan. The highest price reached 112,000 yuan per ton during the trading session, and it has remained above the 111,000 yuan integer level for the second consecutive trading day. The London and Shanghai markets jointly pushed the price higher, and the global copper market's rush for copper did not cool down; instead, the gap between domestic and foreign pricing pushed to a new critical point. This upward movement driven by overseas long positions, mine disruptions, and demand resilience is sending the copper price into the pricing divergence zone. Market participants are re-estimating the true value of copper. Copper, as a macroeconomic indicator, has always been sensitive to interest rate signals and geopolitical events. This rally was driven by financial attributes and commodity attributes, and the stubbornness of inflation in the United States and the fluctuation of the interest rate path have given the US dollar-denominated有色金属 new allocation momentum. The price fluctuations above the high point are rewriting the cost accounts of the industrial chain.
Looking at the timeline, the London Metal Exchange copper price rose from $14,494 to $14,812 in September, increasing by approximately 2.2% over 7 trading days and reaching a 47% increase over the past 12 months. The copper contract 2610 in Shanghai also rose from 109,110 yuan to 111,660 yuan. Both the London Metal Exchange copper and the copper contract 2610 in Shanghai were at high levels - the London Metal Exchange copper had 271,383 lots of holdings, and the copper contract 2610 in Shanghai had 230,498 lots of holdings, with 81,500 lots traded in a single day, indicating that funds did not withdraw but continued to accumulate. The core reason for the widening gap is that the pricing rhythm of the markets in Shanghai, London, and New York was misaligned due to tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar： the latest price of US copper was 685.448 cents per pound, and the conversion ratio continued to narrow. Overseas buyers rushed to purchase while domestic buyers were in a wait-and-see mode, resulting in an imbalance between hot and cold. Supply-side disruptions also continued to intensify. Chile's copper exports in August dropped to a 12-month low, and Australian mining companies, such as Cobre, increased cathode copper production by 300 tons using existing production lines, which was still insufficient. The demand base was supported by power grid investment, AI computing power, and copper used in new energy, with the current average price of 1# copper in the Yangtze River spot market at 112,530 yuan per ton, up 890 yuan, and the copper premium was reported at 180 yuan (b160-b200). The spot price maintained a positive premium over the futures price, and downstream non-oxygen copper wire, enameled wire, and phosphorus copper alloy all rose by 890 yuan to 900 yuan. The chain transmission was smooth. From the price comparison structure, the strong position of the London market and the weak position of the Shanghai market led to the continuous closure of the import window, and the flow of goods from the保税 zone to overseas further exacerbated the shortage of deliverable copper in the domestic market. This simultaneously increased the risk of over-hedging in the near-month contract. This upward movement driven by the joint effect of funds and physical goods is more likely to experience position stampede and reverse correction at the high point.
Overall, the London Metal Exchange copper is approaching the historical peak while the copper contract 2610 in Shanghai has stabilized above 111,000 yuan. The short-term gap between domestic and foreign pricing is unlikely to be closed. Low inventory and mine disruptions remain the strongest chips for the bulls. Although the premium at the spot end has declined from its peak, the positive structure has not been broken, indicating that physical buying still supports the price. In the future, it is necessary to closely track the flow of LME open interest contracts and the recovery rhythm of the LME/SHFE price ratio. If the overseas buying trend continues, the copper price may maintain a strong position at the high level; after the price ratio window opens, the internal and external arbitrageurs will redefine the end point of this copper rush, and the direction of the copper price will also be rewritten. For copper-using enterprises, locking prices at high levels and the transmission ability at the terminal will become the key to profit differentiation in the remaining period of the year.